Why ODM is Losing its Leverage, Lustre and Influence its Wanes as Internal Divisions Deepen

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), once a dominant force in Kenyan politics, is showing cracks that could define its role in the 2027 elections.

Since the death of Raila Odinga last year, the party has struggled to maintain unity, with internal divisions and leadership tensions eroding its bargaining power.

Once seen as a cohesive bloc capable of negotiating from a position of strength, ODM now finds itself split into two factions. One group, led by party leader Oburu Odinga, is aligned with President William Ruto’s Broad-Based Government (BBG).

The other, headed by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, opposes close alignment with the President and is rallying grassroots supporters around a more independent agenda.

The impact of these divisions is evident in key national positions ODM has long targeted. The Deputy President role, currently held by Kithure Kindiki, appears increasingly out of reach, as leaders in Central Kenya consolidate support behind him.

Public dismissals of Oburu’s claims to the seat, including sharp remarks from Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku and Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire, underline the party’s declining leverage.

Political analysts stress that the loss goes beyond specific positions. Javas Bigambo observes that as long as the Sifuna faction challenges the leadership and internal fragmentation persists, ODM cannot negotiate effectively in coalition talks.

Martin Oloo adds, “Forget about what it will reduce because the person who had bargaining power was Raila. Raila is not on site. They don’t have numbers; they don’t have the power.” Charles Munyori echoes this sentiment, noting that without a unified voice, the party’s influence is bound to diminish.

The divisions have spilled into public political events. While Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi campaign staged a massive rally in Kakamega, calling for Kenyans to reject Ruto, Oburu’s faction held simultaneous events in Siaya under the Linda Ground banner, defending ODM’s cooperation with the BBG.

These parallel activities show a party moving in different directions, with MPs openly questioning whether they will defend their seats under ODM.

The fault lines within ODM reflect broader challenges for the party. Grassroots supporters remain wary of government alignment, while leaders are divided over strategy and vision.