UDA–ODM Secret Pact? Why Nairobi’s 2027 Governorship Race Could Be Turned Upside Down

As the countdown to the 2027 General Election gathers pace, Nairobi’s political terrain is showing signs of a possible realignment that could reshape the race for the governorship.

For years, the city has largely leaned towards the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), but emerging talks of a working arrangement between ODM and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) could significantly alter that balance.

In the 2022 General Election, ODM, through the Azimio coalition, demonstrated its deep roots in the capital. The coalition secured 12 of Nairobi’s 17 parliamentary seats.

However, its gubernatorial candidate, Polycarp Igathe, lost to Johnson Sakaja of UDA by a wide margin, underscoring Nairobi’s unpredictable voting patterns.

At the ward level, ODM and UDA emerged as the most popular parties, winning 35 and 36 seats respectively out of 85.

This near parity has fueled speculation that a joint political strategy could give them an edge in 2027, especially in a city where coalitions often decide outcomes.

Political analyst Macharia Munene argues that while such a deal would undoubtedly influence Nairobi politics, it is not without risks.

He notes that the city’s cosmopolitan nature and current public dissatisfaction with the government could work against any alliance perceived as elitist or out of touch with ordinary voters.

Munene also points to divisions within ODM following the era of the late Raila Odinga. According to him, many ODM supporters appear more aligned with the faction led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, raising questions about whether the party can deliver a united vote bloc.

On the other hand, UDA’s director of devolution and county affairs, Omulo Junior, is confident the partnership would dominate Nairobi.

He insists that ODM’s traditional strongholds such as Kibra, Mathare, and Embakasi East remain solid and would boost a joint ticket.

The governorship race itself remains wide open. While Sakaja hopes for a second term, UDA has signaled that nominations will be competitive, with figures like Evans Kidero rumored to be interested.

On the opposition side, names such as James Gakuya and Babu Owino are gaining traction.

Ultimately, Nairobi’s 2027 contest is shaping up to be less about party labels and more about credibility, unity, and the ability to tap into the city’s restless and diverse electorate.